TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 1, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$387

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 8:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 8PM-8:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$73
$387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $385, and the total volume traded to date, which is $387. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding the potential movement of gold prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts offer price targets and recommendations, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment or react more quickly to new information than slower-moving analyst reports. Comparing the two can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 PM and 8:15 PM ET on November 1st. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine which outcome is considered correct. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could lead to shifts in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.