TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7PM-7:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$166

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7PM-7:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified window. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $165, and the total volume traded to date, which is $166. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or directional predictions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the revisions in standard analyst reports. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 PM ET and 7:15 PM ET on November 1st. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The precise price change will be sourced from publicly available financial data and verified to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by gold traders. Any unexpected news related to these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.