TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$343

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 8:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$125
$343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:45 PM and 8:00 PM ET on November 1st. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $342. The total volume for this market is $343, providing insight into overall participation. This information helps you understand market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s short-term movement. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial reports. This difference highlights how this market can offer a unique signal, independent of conventional expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by individual traders responding to news, economic data, and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price changes.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial index, is higher or lower at 8:00 PM ET on November 1st compared to its price at 7:45 PM ET. The final price determination will be sourced from publicly available financial data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in the resolution process.

Several signals could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or significant political announcements, could also drive volatility. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and shift the odds. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold leading up to Nov 2, 2026.