TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$217

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market as it updates. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $213, and the total volume traded to date, which is $217. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding the anticipated gold price change.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer predictions based on economic indicators and historical trends, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of non-public information by traders, or simply a broader range of considered factors. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergence from initial analyst expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 7:30 PM ET and 7:45 PM ET on November 1st. If the price is higher at 7:45 PM ET than at 7:30 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these events could lead to substantial movement in this market.