TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$178

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the historical price action of the market. It also displays the total volume traded, currently at $178, and the 24-hour volume, which is $174. This provides a real-time overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price shift.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and react quickly to new information, potentially offering a different perspective than standard financial analysis. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market reflects a probability distribution of potential outcomes, representing the collective wisdom of traders. It’s worth noting that prediction markets have sometimes outperformed polls and expert opinions in forecasting real-world events.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event approaches. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 PM ET and 7:30 PM ET on November 1st. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure an objective and verifiable result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major policy announcements, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar can play a role. Any news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also cause the odds in this market to shift considerably.