TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$122

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-01T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-01T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $122, and the total volume traded to date, which is $122. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipating moves before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis, or conversely, discounting narratives that are heavily promoted in the media. Examining both sources offers a more comprehensive view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing allows for a highly responsive and efficient market.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on November 1st. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 1, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by traders. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite could all impact the direction of the gold price and, consequently, this market.