TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$40

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-01T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-01T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $40, and the total volume traded to date, which is $40. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions on gold’s future price, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate events before they are widely recognized by traditional sources, or to offer a contrarian view when analysts exhibit strong consensus. Comparing the two can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds shift in real-time as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive structure, encouraging participants to express their true beliefs accurately.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window, 6:45 PM to 7:00 PM ET on November 1st. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could influence the gold price. Any news that affects the overall economic outlook or perceived stability of financial markets has the potential to shift the odds in this market.