TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$106

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $105, and the total volume traded to date, which is $106. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market’s sentiment regarding the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions on gold’s trajectory, this market represents a dynamic aggregation of diverse opinions, weighted by actual financial commitment. This often leads to a different probability assessment than you might find in a typical poll or report. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often static, while the odds in this market continuously adjust as new information becomes available and traders react.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the predicted event occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are always responsive to the latest information.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on November 1st. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The determination will rely on widely recognized financial data sources to ensure an objective assessment of the price movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding central bank gold reserves or significant shifts in global currency valuations could also move this market. Monitoring these events will be key to understanding potential shifts in trader sentiment.