TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$66

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value, alongside a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $65, and the total overall volume traded in this market, which is $66. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions about the future price of gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market diverge from consensus estimates, offering a potentially valuable alternative view on the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the gold price, creating a real-time estimate of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:30 PM ET and 11:45 PM ET on November 1st, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or significant changes in currency exchange rates, could all influence trader sentiment and therefore the price action within this market.