TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$801

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$30
$801
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, the price history reflecting trader activity, and the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $792. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how predictions are evolving as the event approaches. The total volume traded in this market is $801, indicating the level of interest from users.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer bullish or bearish outlooks based on economic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or simply the influence of unexpected events. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the speed of traditional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective prediction.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:15 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET on November 1st. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine which outcome is considered correct. The market will then settle accordingly, reflecting the actual price change during that period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Any surprise news related to major gold-producing countries could also impact trading activity.