TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$295

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $293, and the total volume traded to date, which is $295. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge overall market sentiment regarding the direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market’s expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued rise in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market’s participants may be factoring in other variables, such as interest rate policies or unexpected economic data releases. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective wisdom of the crowd, as represented by this market. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into potential market biases and alternative scenarios.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants trading in this market, offering a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations. This differs from static polls or surveys, as the price continuously adjusts to new information and trading activity.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 10:45 PM ET and 11:00 PM ET on November 1st. If the price is higher at 11:00 PM ET than at 10:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements regarding interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, major geopolitical events (such as escalating conflicts or diplomatic breakthroughs), and surprising economic data releases (particularly inflation figures or employment reports) are all potential catalysts. Shifts in investor risk appetite, driven by broader market trends, could also impact the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Any news that alters perceptions of economic stability or future interest rates has the potential to move this market substantially.