Gold price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes. The prices of these contracts reflect the market’s collective assessment of the probability of each outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular price will occur, the higher the contract price for that outcome will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust predictions as the resolution date approaches.

This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of gold on Sep 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will assess the official gold price as reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data source at that specific time, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market between now and its resolution. Major macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade disputes, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in global economic growth forecasts, changes in currency exchange rates, and even significant movements in other commodity markets could all influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.