TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
kalshi

Gold price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Volume:
$164,348

Above $3861.99

 - Kalshi

Above $3861.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $3861.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,078
N/A
N/A
$6,879
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3841.99

100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,301
N/A
N/A
$4,548
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3621.99

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$982
N/A
N/A
$982
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3761.99

100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
$850
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3681.99

100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$667
N/A
N/A
$667
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3821.99

100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
$554
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3781.99

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3641.99

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3801.99

100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$49
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $3881.99

0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,231
N/A
N/A
$8,304
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3901.99

0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,733
N/A
N/A
$18,283
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3921.99

0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,734
N/A
N/A
$7,709
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4001.99

0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,127
N/A
N/A
$1,702
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3941.99

0%
94%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,839
N/A
N/A
$4,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3961.99

0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,044
N/A
N/A
$2,258
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $3981.99

0%
82%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,197
N/A
N/A
$3,769
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4021.99

0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,506
N/A
N/A
$2,146
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4061.99

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,571
N/A
N/A
$2,829
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4041.99

0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,228
N/A
N/A
$1,641
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4181.99

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,991
N/A
N/A
$1,945
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4081.99

0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,625
N/A
N/A
$1,272
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4121.99

0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$784
N/A
N/A
$558
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4281.99

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4141.99

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
$600
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4201.99

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

The event tracks the precise closing price of gold at a specific moment in the future, reflecting real-time market conditions during a single trading minute. This allows participants to assess exact price levels at a defined point in time, capturing instantaneous market movements without averaging or delay.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price, and if the recorded close is above that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and is officially recorded at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency at the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the gold price market tracks the current implied probabilities of different price outcomes on October 30, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history as traders buy and sell contracts. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $142,948, and the total volume traded to date, which is $164,253. This provides a real-time view of how the market is interpreting the likelihood of various gold price levels at the specified date and time.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than standard polls or individual analyst predictions. Analysts frequently issue point estimates or ranges for the gold price, while this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s worth considering whether the collective wisdom of traders in this market aligns with, or diverges from, the prevailing sentiment among financial experts regarding the future price of gold.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of gold on October 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the price is above or below the levels defined in the available contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract terms.

Numerous factors could influence the gold price market between now and October 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports and GDP figures, can significantly impact investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Changes in monetary policy by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, and fluctuations in the US dollar’s value are also key drivers. Unexpected supply disruptions or major discoveries of gold reserves could also move this market.