TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the precise closing price of gold at a specific moment in the future, reflecting real-time market conditions during a single trading minute. This allows participants to assess exact price levels at a defined point in time, capturing instantaneous market movements without averaging or delay.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price, and if the recorded close is above that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and is officially recorded at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency at the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than standard polls or individual analyst predictions. Analysts frequently issue point estimates or ranges for the gold price, while this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s worth considering whether the collective wisdom of traders in this market aligns with, or diverges from, the prevailing sentiment among financial experts regarding the future price of gold.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of gold on October 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the price is above or below the levels defined in the available contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract terms.
Numerous factors could influence the gold price market between now and October 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports and GDP figures, can significantly impact investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Changes in monetary policy by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, and fluctuations in the US dollar’s value are also key drivers. Unexpected supply disruptions or major discoveries of gold reserves could also move this market.