TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
above $4005
- Kalshi
above $4005 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Related News
Closed: Jun 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Gold prices are influenced by global economic conditions, interest rates, currency movements, and investor sentiment. This market captures the spot price of gold at a precise moment on June 30, 2026.
Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3855 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3865 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3875 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3885 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3895 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3905 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3915 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3925 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3935 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3945 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3955 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3965 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3975 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3985 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3995 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4005 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4015 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4025 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4035 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4045 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4055 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4065 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4075 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4085 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4095 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4105 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4115 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4125 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4135 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4145 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4155 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4165 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4175 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4185 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4195 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4205 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4215 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4225 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4235 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4245 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and collective trader conviction rather than individual expert opinion. Analysts may publish point estimates or ranges based on fundamental models, while this market aggregates dispersed information through price discovery. When professional forecasters and market participants disagree, the gap can signal either underappreciated risks or overconfidence in one camp. Comparing the two reveals where consensus breaks down and which view commands more confidence among those willing to stake capital.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific range or point estimate for the gold price at the designated time, and the bid-ask spread reflects the current balance of supply and demand. As new information arrives or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the market price and implied probability. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery throughout the trading session.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed by comparing the actual gold price at the specified time against the contract terms. Traders should monitor official commodity data sources and market feeds as the resolution date approaches to understand how the final settlement will be determined. Early closure or adjustments are possible if extraordinary circumstances affect normal market operations.
Gold prices respond to shifts in interest rates, inflation expectations, currency strength, and geopolitical risk. Central bank policy announcements, particularly from the Federal Reserve, often trigger sharp moves because they influence real yields and dollar demand. Inflation data, employment reports, and recession signals also drive trader positioning. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, or financial instability can boost safe-haven demand for gold. Technical levels and options expiry dates may create additional volatility. Traders should track macroeconomic calendars and monitor real-time news flow to anticipate potential catalysts before they move this market.
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