TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the precise closing price of gold at a specific moment, August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, using one-minute candlestick data. Investors and analysts often monitor such benchmarks to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about commodity exposure.
The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2026. If the price exceeds any of the specified thresholds—ranging from $4,402 to $4,792 per troy ounce—the corresponding market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used to determine the outcome.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect a collective trader perspective that can diverge significantly. While analysts may issue target prices or trend assessments, the probability here is set by active betting on Kalshi. Those discrepancies often highlight areas where market participants see higher or lower likelihoods than consensus projections.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be checked against widely accepted sources at the specified time, determining whether the contract settles for the 'Yes' or 'No' position based on that snapshot.
Economic data releases, central bank announcements, geopolitical developments, and shifts in currency strength can all influence this market. Any event that changes expectations for interest rates or inflation—key drivers of gold demand—may cause rapid re-pricing. Trader reactions to major news flows will largely set the direction in the months leading to Aug 31, 2026.