TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 24?
kalshi
polymarket

Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 24?

Volume:
$483

above $4410

 - Kalshi

above $4410 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 24, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $4410

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$158
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4420

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
$113
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4430

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
$33
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4440

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4160

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4170

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4460

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 24?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4180

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4190

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4200

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4210

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4220

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4230

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4240

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4250

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4260

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4270

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4280

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4290

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4300

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4310

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4320

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $4330

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group compares gold (GC) futures price movement on March 24, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on whether the CME official settlement price for the Active Month contract is higher or lower than the previous trading day's settlement. Kalshi resolves based on whether the 1-minute candlestick close price at 5 PM EDT exceeds various threshold levels.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses official CME daily settlement price comparison (directional), while Kalshi uses intraday 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT (absolute threshold levels). The two markets measure different price points and resolution criteria.Hero tip: Polymarket resolves on whether March 24 settlement is higher or lower than March 23 settlement. Kalshi resolves on whether the 5 PM EDT 1-minute close exceeds specific price thresholds. These can produce opposite outcomes. Confirm your platform's data source before entering positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional comparison of official CME settlement prices. Resolves Up if March 24 Active Month settlement > March 23 Active Month settlement; Down if lower. Uses only official CME published settlement price, not intraday data. Source: CME Group settlement page.
  • Kalshi: Absolute price threshold testing using 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if close exceeds any of 40 thresholds ($4160–$4550). Uses intraday real-time data at a specific moment, not daily settlement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.