TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 24?
Volume:
$483
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group compares gold (GC) futures price movement on March 24, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on whether the CME official settlement price for the Active Month contract is higher or lower than the previous trading day's settlement. Kalshi resolves based on whether the 1-minute candlestick close price at 5 PM EDT exceeds various threshold levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses official CME daily settlement price comparison (directional), while Kalshi uses intraday 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT (absolute threshold levels). The two markets measure different price points and resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves on whether March 24 settlement is higher or lower than March 23 settlement. Kalshi resolves on whether the 5 PM EDT 1-minute close exceeds specific price thresholds. These can produce opposite outcomes. Confirm your platform's data source before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison of official CME settlement prices. Resolves Up if March 24 Active Month settlement > March 23 Active Month settlement; Down if lower. Uses only official CME published settlement price, not intraday data. Source: CME Group settlement page.
- Kalshi: Absolute price threshold testing using 1-minute candlestick close at 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if close exceeds any of 40 thresholds ($4160–$4550). Uses intraday real-time data at a specific moment, not daily settlement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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