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GitHub.com critical incident by...?
polymarket

Will there be a critical GitHub incident?

Volume:
$2,671

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 5:33 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

November 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$930
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 14h
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GitHub outage market displays the current odds of various outcomes related to a critical incident on GitHub.com. You can view the implied probabilities, track the total volume traded—currently at $2,671—and see the 24-hour volume, which is $2,671. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how the market has priced in new information over time. This allows traders to assess sentiment and potential catalysts impacting the likelihood of different scenarios concerning the GitHub outage.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. For this market, analysts are currently predicting a range of potential causes and timelines for a GitHub.com critical incident. However, the wisdom of the crowd, as reflected in the prices on Polymarket, may offer a different perspective. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access, biases, or simply the aggregate effect of many individual perspectives contributing to this market. It's valuable to consider both viewpoints when evaluating the likelihood of various outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's consensus view. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the perceived chance of that outcome occurring. Volume and trading activity influence price discovery, with larger volumes generally indicating greater confidence in the market's assessment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations.

This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether a critical incident impacting GitHub.com occurred, and if so, the identified cause. The market will settle based on publicly available information regarding the nature and scope of any such incident. Traders should monitor news sources and official GitHub.com announcements as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 16, 2026. Official announcements from GitHub.com regarding system stability, security vulnerabilities, or ongoing incidents would be major catalysts. Reports of widespread outages or service disruptions from independent monitoring services could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news related to the underlying infrastructure or potential cyberattacks could further influence the market. Additionally, any high-profile commentary from industry experts or security researchers could shift sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.