TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Mike Collins, 10-15%
- Kalshi
Mike Collins, 10-15% - Kalshi
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Resolved Jul 8, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 8, 11:16 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A runoff election will occur in Georgia for a Republican Senate seat in 2026, with outcomes tracked across various victory margin ranges for the competing candidates.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage received by the leading candidate minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind if that candidate wins, or the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if the leading candidate loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; for example, a margin of exactly 5% falls in the 5-10% range, not the 0-5% range. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed for the same underlying candidate. A winning margin is positive, a losing margin is negative, and a tie results in a margin of zero. For uncontested races where a candidate is the only nominee, the margin is 100 percentage points.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-time information, betting incentives, and forward-looking expectations. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous financial commitments from participants who profit or lose based on accuracy. For the Georgia Republican Senate runoff margin, market odds may reflect campaign momentum, turnout models, or late-breaking developments faster than polls update. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in scenarios that surveys have not yet captured.
The Georgia Republican Senate runoff margin market resolves on Jun 16, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official final vote margin certified by Georgia election authorities between the Republican and Democratic candidates in the runoff election. The market outcome depends on which candidate wins and by how many percentage points or votes, depending on the specific contract structure. Once official results are published and verified, the contract settles based on the actual margin achieved.
Key catalysts for the Georgia Republican Senate runoff margin include early voting data releases, which reveal turnout patterns and demographic composition; campaign events and endorsements that shift momentum; debate performances and media coverage; economic reports affecting voter sentiment; and final polling releases in the days before the election. Unexpected developments—such as candidate gaffes, breaking news, or major national events—can also reshape market pricing. Turnout models and ground-game reports from both campaigns will influence trader expectations about the final margin as election day approaches.
