TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
40% - 45%
- Kalshi
40% - 45% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 5, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 5, 2:37 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Mike Collins will capture between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 97.0%, with a secondary outcome of Mike Collins receiving between 35% and 40% of the vote at 2.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported for the first round of the primary. Watch for the official results from the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary election scheduled for resolution by May 19, 2027.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations for Mike Collins's primary vote share, often incorporating information faster than traditional polling cycles. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets aggregate ongoing bets from participants who face financial consequences for accuracy. Discrepancies between market odds and recent polls can signal either market skepticism about poll methodology or early detection of shifting voter preferences. Comparing Kalshi pricing to Georgia Republican primary polling averages helps identify whether traders view Collins's prospects as stronger or weaker than survey data suggests.
The Georgia Republican Senate primary: Mike Collins market resolves on May 19, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official vote share Mike Collins receives in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary election. The outcome is settled based on certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State and relevant election authorities. Market contracts pay out according to which vote-share bracket Collins's final tally falls into, ensuring traders' positions are resolved against the actual primary outcome rather than projections or exit polls.
Several catalysts could shift market odds for Mike Collins's primary vote share. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, and endorsements from prominent Georgia Republicans or national figures will likely trigger repricing. Polling releases showing Collins gaining or losing ground among primary voters create immediate market reactions. Media coverage of his campaign infrastructure, fundraising totals, and ground organization can influence trader expectations. Primary challenger entries or exits, shifts in voter turnout models, and breaking news about Collins's record or positions may also move prices. As the May 2026 primary approaches, cumulative campaign momentum and late-stage voter movement will drive final market adjustments.
