TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Rick Jackson, 3-6%
- Kalshi
Rick Jackson, 3-6% - Kalshi
1W
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Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 8, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 8, 10:45 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market concerns the margin of victory in a 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial runoff election between two candidates. The market tracks the winning margin achieved by either candidate in this race.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage received by the leading candidate minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind if that candidate wins, or the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if the leading candidate loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; for example, a margin of exactly 3% falls in the 3-6% range, not the 0-3% range. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed for the same underlying candidate. A winning margin is positive, a losing margin is negative, and a tie results in a margin of zero. For uncontested races where a candidate is the only nominee, the margin is 100 percentage points.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking sentiment. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual runoff outcome, including uncertainty and late-breaking developments. Polling averages may show a tighter race, whereas markets might price in structural advantages or disadvantage based on historical turnout patterns and campaign momentum. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more bullish or bearish than survey data suggests about the final margin.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the Georgia Republican Governor runoff margin of victory is priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting different victory margin outcomes. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of that margin occurring. Traders buy contracts if they believe the margin will fall within that range and sell if they disagree. The order book depth and bid-ask spread indicate market liquidity and conviction around specific margin thresholds, helping traders assess execution costs and the strength of consensus on the runoff's competitive tightness.
The Georgia Republican Governor runoff margin of market resolves on Jun 16, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State, which confirm the final vote margin between the two leading Republican candidates in the runoff election. The margin is calculated as the absolute difference in votes received, and the outcome is assigned to the contract bracket that encompasses that final margin. Once results are certified and verified, the market settles and winnings are distributed to holders of the correct outcome contract.
Key catalysts include campaign advertising spending, debate performances, and endorsements from prominent Georgia Republicans. Turnout models and early voting data will shift market expectations as Election Day approaches. National political developments, economic news, and voter mobilization efforts by both campaigns can reshape the perceived margin. Polling releases, particularly late-stage surveys, often trigger sharp repricing. Unexpected candidate statements or controversies could alter voter sentiment. Ground-game effectiveness and absentee ballot trends in key counties will influence final-week trading as traders refine their margin estimates closer to Jun 16, 2027.
