TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Burt Jones, 3-6%
- Kalshi
Burt Jones, 3-6% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 5, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 5, 2:33 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the margin of victory for the leading Republican candidate in the first round of Georgia's 2026 gubernatorial primary. On Kalshi, the probability that the margin falls between 3% and 6% stands at 79.0%, with a 5.0% probability assigned to a margin between 6% and 9%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the first round of voting. Watch for the primary election results on May 19, 2027, which will determine the final margin and settle this market.
Frequently asked questions
The market resolves on May 19, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official first-round margin of victory in the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary. The outcome depends on which candidate wins and by how many percentage points, measured as the gap between the top two finishers. Once official results are certified, the specific margin range that occurred will be confirmed, and all contracts will settle accordingly based on which outcome bracket the actual margin falls into.
Key catalysts include candidate announcements, campaign endorsements from major Georgia Republicans, debate performances, and shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations. Scandals or gaffes involving leading candidates could sharply alter margin expectations. Polling releases—especially from high-quality firms—often trigger repricing as traders update their models. Economic conditions, state legislative actions, and national Republican primary dynamics may also influence how consolidated the Georgia field becomes, directly affecting whether the winner's margin is narrow or decisive.
