Georgia Republican Governor primary: Brad Raffensperger vote percent

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who incorporate polling data, campaign developments, and historical primary patterns. While traditional polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations across many participants. Raffensperger's market odds may diverge from polls due to traders' assessments of turnout, late-breaking news, or structural advantages. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in scenarios polls have not yet captured, offering insight into which data source better anticipates the final vote share outcome.

The market resolves on May 19, 2027, following the conclusion of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count for Brad Raffensperger as reported by Georgia election authorities. The outcome depends on his final vote share relative to all other Republican candidates in the first round. Once results are certified and verified, the contract settles based on whether Raffensperger's actual percentage falls within the specified range or not.

Key catalysts include major campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Georgia Republicans, and shifts in rival candidates' viability. Polling releases showing Raffensperger gaining or losing ground will directly influence market pricing. Fundraising reports, media coverage of his record as Secretary of State, and turnout models will also shape trader expectations. Late-breaking political developments, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected controversies could trigger sharp repricing. As primary day approaches, early voting data and final polls will become increasingly influential in determining his final vote share.