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Georgia Democratic Governor primary: Jason Esteves vote percent
kalshi

Georgia Democratic Governor primary: Jason Esteves vote percent

Volume:
$11,331

15% - 20%

 - Kalshi

15% - 20% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 5, 2:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

15% - 20%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,328
N/A
N/A
$832
7mo 3w
Yes
kalshi

At least 25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,879
N/A
N/A
$733
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Below 5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,510
N/A
N/A
$2,237
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

5% - 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
$1,503
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

10% - 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,661
N/A
N/A
$1,416
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

20% - 25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,219
N/A
N/A
$691
7mo 3w
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Jason Esteves will capture between 15% and 20% of the vote in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial primary. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Esteves receives 10% to 14.99% of the popular vote—stands at 99.0%, while the possibility he secures at least 25% sits at 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage from the Georgia Democratic primary election. Watch the primary election results on May 19, 2027, when the certified vote totals will settle this market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from traditional polling averages due to differences in methodology and incentive structures. While polls measure stated voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information, campaign momentum, and trader conviction. For the Georgia Democratic primary, market prices may lead or lag polling depending on recent campaign developments, fundraising announcements, or shifts in candidate viability. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in dynamics that surveys have not yet captured.

The market resolves on May 19, 2027 following the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and reported vote share for Jason Esteves in the first round of the primary. The outcome will be confirmed once election authorities release certified results. Traders should monitor official Georgia Secretary of State announcements and news coverage of primary night to track when final vote totals become available and the contract settles.

Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Georgia Democrats, fundraising reports, and shifts in voter registration or early voting data. Media coverage of Esteves's platform and viability relative to other primary candidates will influence trader perception. Polling releases specific to the Democratic primary could trigger sharp price moves if they show unexpected strength or weakness. Late-stage campaign developments, candidate withdrawals, or major gaffes could also significantly impact the probability of Esteves reaching the 25 percent threshold by primary day.