TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 6.3%
- Kalshi
Above 6.3% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 7, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The relative performance of major political parties in hypothetical elections is often measured through generic ballot polls. These polls ask respondents which party they would vote for without naming specific candidates, reflecting broader party support trends.
Kalshi
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 6.3% at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
This market often reflects polling averages, but can diverge based on trader expectations about turnout, economic conditions, or campaign dynamics not fully captured in polls. When the chance percentage on Kalshi deviates sharply from poll aggregates, it may signal market anticipation of shifts in voter sentiment or events that polls have not yet captured, making this market a complementary — but not identical — indicator to traditional surveys.
This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by aggregating verified poll data covering the specified dates, providing a clear, data-driven conclusion without ambiguity.
Events such as economic data releases, major campaign announcements, debates, or shifts in incumbent approval ratings could move this market. Surprise polling trends, party convention outcomes, or emerging scandals often cause rapid adjustments in trader sentiment. As Aug 7, 2026 approaches, shorter-term news cycles and final-week campaign pushes typically drive most of the volatility in this market.
