TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 5.7%
- Kalshi
Above 5.7% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 31, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The political landscape often shows shifts in party favor depending on recent events, leadership performance, or policy debates. Measuring the difference between party support levels helps gauge which side holds a perceived advantage.
Kalshi
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 5.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
This market often reflects polling averages with slight adjustments for trader expectations about turnout, strategic shifts, and late-deciding voters. While polls provide snapshots of public opinion, this market incorporates betting behavior that can react faster to emerging trends, news cycles, and perceived momentum, sometimes showing a tighter or wider spread than traditional surveys.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the top outcome’s chance represented by a decimal price. The current implied probability reflects aggregated bets on whether Democrats will lead on the generic ballot over the specified polling window, adjusting dynamically with new information and trading volume of $18,100.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on aggregated polling data over the specified dates, interpreted according to the market’s defined rules, and becomes final once officially recorded by the platform.
