TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 2:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether General Mills will report organic net sales growth between 0% and 1.5% for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome holds 50.0% probability, while growth between 1.5% and 3% stands at 23.5%. Resolution will be determined by General Mills' official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. Watch for the company's Q4 2026 earnings announcement by June 24, 2026, which will provide the official organic net sales growth figure needed to settle this market.
This market will resolve according to General Mills' announced organic net sales growth for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is General Mills' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts. While Wall Street analysts typically issue earnings estimates based on historical trends and company guidance, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment from a diverse set of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. For General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth, comparing market-implied probabilities to published analyst consensus can reveal whether traders expect better or worse performance than the Street's baseline. These differences highlight areas where market participants may have distinct information or risk assessments.
The General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth market resolves on Jun 24, 2026. Resolution depends on General Mills' official Q4 earnings announcement and the company's reported organic net sales growth figure for that quarter. The outcome is determined by comparing actual reported growth to the predefined outcome brackets available in the market. Once General Mills releases audited Q4 results, the market settles based on which bracket the reported organic net sales growth falls into, and traders holding winning outcome shares receive their payouts.
Key catalysts include General Mills' quarterly earnings reports leading up to Q4, consumer spending trends in packaged foods, commodity price movements affecting input costs, and management commentary on pricing power and volume. Competitor earnings and industry-wide organic growth trends provide context for General Mills' relative performance. Macroeconomic data on consumer confidence and retail sales can shift expectations for branded food demand. Any management guidance revisions, product recalls, or significant promotional activity will influence trader expectations. Finally, broader market sentiment about inflation and consumer discretionary spending may impact predictions as the resolution date approaches.