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Gemini Argon released on...?
polymarket

When will Gemini Argon be released?

Volume:
$98,036

October 13

 - Polymarket

October 13 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 2:17 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 13

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 14

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No release by October 31

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 27

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 30

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 31

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 29

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 16

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 12

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 21

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

On or prior to October 8

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$982
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$947
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 18

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 10

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$723
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 25

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 17

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Gemini Argon release date tracks the probabilities associated with various potential release dates. You’ll find the current odds reflecting the collective predictions of traders, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $57,770. The total volume traded on this market is $97,412. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available regarding the development and planned launch of Gemini Argon. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of where the crowd believes the release date will fall.

Currently, the predictions within this market are focused on whether Gemini Argon will be released before or after specific dates. It's interesting to compare these probabilities to those offered by tech analysts and industry experts. While many analysts anticipate a release sometime in late 2025 or early 2026, this market allows for a more nuanced view, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the launch timeline for Gemini Argon.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various release dates for Gemini Argon. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official release date of Gemini Argon is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on identifying the date Google officially announces the public availability of Gemini Argon. This will be determined by examining official Google announcements, press releases, and widely recognized tech news sources. The market will then settle to reflect the accuracy of the predictions made by traders leading up to the release, providing a clear record of the collective forecast.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Google regarding the development progress of Gemini Argon, including any delays or accelerations in the timeline, would be major catalysts. Leaks or credible reports from tech journalists specializing in AI could also shift the probabilities. Positive or negative feedback from early testers of the model, if publicly available, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant breakthroughs or setbacks in the broader field of large language models could indirectly affect expectations for Gemini Argon’s release.