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$142.3b

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$107,419,736

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

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35,775

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2,926

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5

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Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
polymarket

Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?

Oct 2, 2026, 6:17 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$94,347
Volume 24h:
$25,176
267%
Liquidity:
$13,421
108%
Open interest:
$10,169N/A

55%+

 - Polymarket

55%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jul 1, 2027

Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.8¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.2% | APY: 0.28% Illiquid market 258 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55%+

Trade
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$4,987
$18,221
20%
60%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
disputed
polymarket

60%+

Trade
0%
15%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$8,434
$27,320
31%
265%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
disputed
polymarket

45%+

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,567
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

50%+

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
Yes
Total markets: 4

Description

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Gemini Argon debut market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You’ll find a visual representation of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes related to the launch and initial reception of Google’s Gemini Argon model. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $17,498, and the total volume traded to date is $94,347. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment and activity surrounding this significant event in the AI landscape.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. While analysts offer informed predictions based on research and expertise, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities that analysts may have overlooked, or vice versa. Currently, the market is pricing in a different probability than many initial analyst reports suggested, indicating a potentially unique perspective on the Gemini Argon debut.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, offering a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential success of the Gemini Argon launch. The current price indicates the collective expectation of the event’s outcome.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether the Gemini Argon model has a public debut, as defined by a widely publicized launch event and availability for public use or demonstration. The specific details of the launch, including the form it takes and the extent of its availability, will be assessed against publicly available information to determine the market’s outcome. The resolution will be based on objective evidence, not subjective interpretation.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major announcements from Google regarding the Gemini Argon model’s development, release date, or capabilities would be key catalysts. Unexpected technical challenges or delays in the launch could decrease confidence and lower prices. Positive reviews from early testers or demonstrations could drive prices upward. Broader news related to the AI industry, competitor announcements, or regulatory changes could also influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Any substantial information impacting the perceived likelihood of a successful debut will likely cause price movement.