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Gemini App Downloads in August
kalshi

What will be the Gemini App download performance in August?

Volume:
$41,570

Above 260

 - Kalshi

Above 260 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 6, 10:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 260

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,080
N/A
N/A
$3,370
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 180

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,330
N/A
N/A
$1,520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 240

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,305
N/A
N/A
$3,128
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,654
N/A
N/A
$1,320
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 160

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,550
N/A
N/A
$1,125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 220

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
$1,041
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 280

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,651
N/A
N/A
$987
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the performance of the Gemini App in August 2026, focusing on whether download figures exceed specific thresholds. The outcomes are determined by year-over-year growth metrics reported by Carbon Arc, reflecting the app's popularity relative to the previous year.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Gemini App Downloads in August 2026, each with a distinct resolution criterion. All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for August 2026, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. Each threshold—ranging from above 160 to above 260—defines a separate market outcome, where exceeding the specified value results in a 'Yes' resolution. The index used measures year-over-year changes, with 100 indicating equal performance to the prior year, values above 100 signifying growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Gemini App Downloads market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $81. This visualization shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different download outcomes for the Gemini App in August, with all data updated continuously throughout the trading period.

Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Gemini App performance. While analysts may incorporate broader trends and historical data, prediction market prices can shift rapidly based on news, user behavior, and hype surrounding the app, potentially offering a different perspective on download estimates.

On Kalshi, this market uses trader submissions to set its current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability reflects collective trader expectations about user adoption trends and competitive dynamics influencing download behavior. Volume of $41,570 supports these price movements, showing market interest. Traders adjust positions based on news, product updates, and usage metrics that could shift expectations before Sep 14, 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the August download figures are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final numbers will be compared against the defined ranges to determine which outcome matches the actual performance of the Gemini App for that month.

Several signals could influence this market before it closes on Sep 14, 2026. Major product announcements, platform-specific updates, or shifts in user engagement metrics might shift trader sentiment. Competitive releases from rival apps could also affect expectations. Media coverage highlighting adoption rates or user experience changes may drive volume and price swings as traders reassess probabilities.