TOTAL VOLUME:

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,132,646,826

321,152

Markets across

31,546

events

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3,547

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5

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Gemini 4.0 released by...?
🌟New
Science and Technology
polymarket
kalshi

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Total volume:
$273,386
Volume 24h:
$13,112
45%
Liquidity:
$36,809
36%
Open interest:
$67,329N/A

November 30

 - Polymarket

November 30 - Polymarket

89%

-7%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

80%85%90%95%

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 25

Vol.

$17.2

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% | APY: 54% 97 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks the release timeline for Google's Gemini 4.0 model across multiple prediction markets. Markets resolve based on whether the model becomes publicly accessible by specified dates, with strict criteria for what qualifies as a public release.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets use identical release criteria (public accessibility requirement) with only date thresholds differingPrimary resolution logic: Official Google announcements verified by consensus of credible tech reporting sources

Core resolution logic:

  • Gemini 4.0 must be explicitly named or recognized as successor to Gemini 3
  • Must be publicly accessible (open beta/rolling waitlist), not closed/private beta
  • Requires clear official announcement from Google
  • Versions like Gemini 3.0 Flash or Gemini 2.5 do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Labeling Error: Website listing that isn't actually accessible to public won't qualify
  • Successor Recognition: Must be widely recognized as direct successor to Gemini 3 (like Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3 progression)
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after public accessibility is confirmed by primary sourcesOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if Google publicly releases Gemini 4 before any of the specified dates from September 16, 2026, through January 1, 2027. A public release requires the model to be available outside of a closed beta, though it may be accessible only through a high-cost subscription tier. The earliest qualifying release date determines the resolution, with all markets converging on the same criteria for what constitutes a valid public launch.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Gemini 4.0 developer market aggregates betting activity across platforms, showing real-time odds and volume. It provides a consensus view of market expectations, reflecting trader sentiment toward when Google will unveil its next-generation AI model. With current volume at $0, the dashboard helps users monitor shifts in probability as new information emerges, giving a clear picture of where the market stands on this major tech release.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on an official announcement or documented evidence that the model has been released, ensuring transparency and fairness for all participants. Traders should watch for major tech events or press releases from Google that could trigger a definitive outcome.

Key signals include official developer announcements, major AI conferences, and leaks from trusted industry sources. Any indication of delays, accelerated timelines, or competitive releases from other tech firms could also shift probabilities. Additionally, significant updates to prior models or changes in Google's strategic focus may influence trader sentiment and adjust odds dramatically as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches.