TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Gemini 4.0 released by...?
polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Volume:
$1,774,669

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 2:16 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$271,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$245,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 13

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$114,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

November 30

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 14h
Yes
polymarket

October 14

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 16

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$46,825
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 23

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$644,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 10

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 12

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 5

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks whether Google releases Gemini 4.0 to the general public by October 31, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to Gemini 4.0 being released by that date. The market resolves based on official information from Google, with verification from credible reporting. Keep an eye on Google’s announcements regarding its AI models, as the resolution source will consider whether a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled as Gemini 4.0 by December 1, 2026 – the current resolution date estimate.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Gemini 4.0 release market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the release date of Gemini 4.0. You can view the price history, which shows how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, currently at $243,903, indicating recent trading activity. The total volume for this market is $1,774,502. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see which outcomes are currently favored by traders focused on this event.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Gemini 4.0 being released by November 30, 2026. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which predict a later release date due to the complexity of the model and potential regulatory hurdles. However, it's important to remember that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while analyst forecasts are based on individual assessments. The difference between these viewpoints highlights the dynamic nature of predicting future events.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning increased buying pressure on a particular outcome will drive its price up, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each scenario.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a publicly announced release date for Gemini 4.0 by Google. The market will then be settled based on whether the release occurred before or after the specified dates represented by the different outcomes. The final price will reflect the accuracy of the market’s predictions and the collective intelligence of its participants.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Google regarding Gemini 4.0’s development progress, including timelines or specific feature releases, would be major catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI technology, or conversely, significant setbacks in Google’s AI research, could also shift the odds. Regulatory decisions impacting the deployment of large language models, and competitor announcements regarding their own AI models, could also influence trading activity in this market.