TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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GDP growth in 2026
kalshi
polymarket

GDP growth in 2026

Total volume:
$120,948
Volume 24h:
$1,286
869%
Liquidity:
$2,671
40%
Open interest:
$3,536
0%

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 29, 2027

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 3% 140 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
94%
Yes 99¢No 77¢
76¢
N/A
$138
0%
0%
$10
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
88%
Yes 99¢No 89¢
88¢
N/A
$375
0%
0%
$67
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
72%
Yes 95¢No 28¢
23¢
N/A
$1,016
0%
0%
$607
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 1.5%

Trade
69%
Yes 90¢No 40¢
30¢
N/A
$1,577
0%
0%
$316
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 2.0%

Trade
58%
Yes 81¢No 48¢
29¢
N/A
$2,231
0%
0%
$1,223
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

2.0–2.5%

Trade
52%
Yes 52¢No 49¢
1¢
$390
$8,435
8%
11%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
46%
Yes 55¢No 69¢
24¢
N/A
$407
0%
0%
$231
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

>2.5%

Trade
15%
7%
Yes 17.9¢No 88.6¢
6.5¢
$414
$16,351
1%
2%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
30.5%
Yes 36.5¢No 78.8¢
Avg: 15.3¢Max: 24¢
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
25%
Yes 66¢No 88¢
54¢
N/A
$147
0%
0%
$25
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

1.5–2.0%

Trade
24%
21%
Yes 28.3¢No 80.1¢
8.4¢
$444
$7,894
5%
8%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
13%
Yes 38¢No 95¢
33¢
N/A
$52,435
0%
0%
$796
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

1.0–1.5%

Trade
6%
4%
Yes 10.2¢No 98.6¢
8.8¢
$381
$3,971
0.76%
2%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 24¢No 92¢
16¢
N/A
$906
0%
0%
$261
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

<0.5%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97.2¢
1.2¢
$448
$7,679
0.39%
1%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
polymarket

0.5–1.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.7¢
1.8¢
$593
$17,387
0.17%
0.31%
N/A
4mo 2w 6d
active
Total markets: 15

Description

This group of markets focuses on predicting the US real GDP growth rate for the year 2026. The outcome will be determined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 'Advance Estimate' release for Q4 of 2026, expected in January 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets consistently use the BEA's Advance Estimate for Q4 2026 as the resolution source, with no methodological differences across platforms.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate release for Q4 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution will be based on the full-year real GDP growth rate as reported in the BEA's Advance Estimate for Q4 2026
  • The growth rate is calculated as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026
  • If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Bracket Boundary: If the reported GDP growth rate falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket
  • Data Revision: Any revisions to the figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for resolution
Timing: Resolution will occur after the release of the BEA's Advance Estimate for Q4 2026, estimated to be in January 2027Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple markets, each tied to a specific threshold of real GDP growth for Q4 2026, as reported by the BEA using its seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate. All markets resolve based on whether the reported growth exceeds their respective thresholds, ranging from above 0.0% to above 4.0%. Market closing occurs at 8:29 AM on the day of the data release, with expiration set for the first 10:00 AM following the release or three months thereafter, whichever comes first. The expiration value for each market is the one-decimal place figure published by the BEA, determining the final settlement price across all thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the 2026 GDP growth market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of various GDP growth outcomes throughout 2026. It displays real-time volume of $120,948 and 24-hour volume of $1,286, offering a consensus view of market sentiment and highlighting any notable shifts in expectations as new economic data emerges.

On Polymarket, odds reflect collective trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts which may incorporate broader economic models or institutional perspectives. While analysts might emphasize long-term trends or policy impacts, this market captures short-term speculative adjustments. The gap between the two can reveal market anxiety or optimism not yet reflected in mainstream reports, making this market a complementary barometer of investor confidence.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences arise because each platform hosts distinct user bases and liquidity profiles, influencing price discovery. Polymarket currently favors Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? at 51.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026? at 94.0%. Factors such as regional participation, market design nuances, and varying trader risk appetites all contribute to the 42.5 spread, reflecting diverse interpretations of economic signals.

Key events such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, major fiscal announcements, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected global economic shocks can dramatically shift this market. Strong or weak quarterly GDP releases, inflation data surprises, and geopolitical developments also influence trader sentiment. As these signals emerge, volume often spikes, rapidly adjusting odds in response to new information and revised growth expectations.