TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether the GBPUSD exchange rate will exceed various thresholds at a specific moment. Each market has a different threshold, and the outcome depends on the rate at that exact time, reflecting potential movements in currency value.
All markets resolve based on the GBPUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 28, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not provide data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution. The markets collectively assess different levels of the GBPUSD rate, each with its own threshold for resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the GBPUSD pair might trade. While analysts may incorporate macro models and longer-term trends, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, economic data, and sentiment shifts. This can lead to notable differences, especially around key events or surprises in British or US economic releases.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks based on their expectations for the GBPUSD level at the specified time. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of all active bets, with chances implied by the price of each possible outcome. Trading dynamics — such as new economic indicators or central bank statements — shift supply and demand, adjusting the odds instantly.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will use the official closing price of the GBPUSD pair at the specified time, as recorded by authoritative financial data providers. Traders can track this value through major news outlets or financial platforms once the market closes.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including UK or US inflation data, employment reports, central bank policy decisions, and geopolitical developments affecting currency flows. Speeches from key central bankers, shifts in oil prices, or sudden risk-off sentiment in global markets may also cause rapid re-pricing. Traders will watch these events closely as they could dramatically alter expectations for the GBPUSD level by Aug 28, 2026.