TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether the GBPUSD exchange rate will exceed various thresholds at a specific moment. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on the precise level the rate might reach.
All markets resolve based on the GBPUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its respective threshold at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the rate do not affect the resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the GBPUSD pair might trade. While analysts may incorporate macro models and longer-term trends, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, economic data, and geopolitical developments. The current implied probability from Kalshi can diverge noticeably from consensus analyst targets.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post their own bids and asks. The displayed probability represents the weighted average of active orders and recent trades. Liquidity can vary sharply around major economic releases or central bank announcements that affect GBP or USD dynamics.
Key events that could shift this market include UK or US inflation data, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England or Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions impacting currency flows, and major economic policy announcements. Each release has the potential to reshape expectations for GBPUSD and drive rapid price adjustments on Kalshi before resolution.