Gas prices in the US in Sep 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the top outcome's chance represented by 99.0%. The market price adjusts dynamically based on order flow and liquidity of $121,498, reflecting collective bets on where U.S. gas prices will land by the end of September 2026. Traders can back either side, and the platform’s pricing mechanism ensures that the displayed odds always mirror active market balance.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. By that date, official fuel price surveys and government energy statistics will provide the final data point needed to settle all contracts. The process relies on widely accepted sources to ensure transparency, and all positions close based on the price recorded in those authoritative reports.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Changes in crude oil inventories, geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, or new U.S. federal policies on fuel taxes and efficiency standards often drive rapid moves. Additionally, unexpected spikes in consumer demand — perhaps from a strong travel season — or disruptions in refining capacity can reshape trader expectations. Any major economic shift that alters the cost or availability of gasoline tends to push odds toward new levels on Kalshi.