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GA-10 Republican primary: margin of victory
kalshi

GA-10 Republican primary: margin of victory

Volume:
$33,524

Houston Gaines, ≥25%

 - Kalshi

Houston Gaines, ≥25% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 8, 2026

Closed: Jun 8, 7:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Houston Gaines, ≥25%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,639
N/A
N/A
$7,324
7mo 3w
Yes
kalshi

Houston Gaines, 15-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,746
N/A
N/A
$4,233
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Houston Gaines, 20-25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,476
N/A
N/A
$4,243
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Ryan Millsap, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,336
N/A
N/A
$2,239
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Ryan Millsap, ≥10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,313
N/A
N/A
$2,219
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Houston Gaines, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,202
N/A
N/A
$2,202
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Ryan Millsap, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,608
N/A
N/A
$1,608
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Houston Gaines, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,602
N/A
N/A
$1,602
7mo 3w
No
kalshi

Houston Gaines, 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,602
N/A
N/A
$1,602
7mo 3w
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the winning margin for the leading Republican candidate in the 2026 Georgia 10th Congressional District primary's first round. On Kalshi, the probability that the margin exceeds 25% stands at 99.0%, while the probability it falls between 15% and 20% is 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by official primary results as reported by Georgia election authorities. Watch for the first-round primary election results expected by May 19, 2027, which will determine the final margin and settle the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations about the final margin, which may diverge from traditional polling averages. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information, campaign developments, and trader conviction. The current market pricing suggests strong confidence in a particular outcome, though polls may show tighter or looser races depending on methodology and timing. Both sources offer complementary perspectives on the likely result.

The market resolves on May 19, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory recorded in the 2026 Georgia 10th Congressional District Republican primary election. The outcome hinges on the vote share differential between the leading candidate and the runner-up in that race. Once official results are certified, the contract settles based on whether the actual margin meets or exceeds the specified threshold.

Key catalysts include candidate endorsements, debate performances, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations. Local media coverage and candidate controversies can rapidly reshape the race dynamics. National Republican Party attention to the district, primary challenger entry or exit, and polling releases will all influence trader positioning. Fundraising reports and field organization updates also signal candidate viability and likely margin size. As election day approaches, early voting data and final polls typically drive the largest price movements.