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FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 9?
polymarket
kalshi

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 9?

Volume:
$3,263

Above 101.0780

 - Kalshi

Above 101.0780 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 1:58 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 101.0780

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,133
N/A
N/A
$2,528
Settled
No
polymarket

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 9?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group asks whether the FTSE 100 Index (UKX) will close higher or lower on Thursday, July 9, 2026 compared to its most recent prior trading day. The markets measure intraday directional movement of the UK's primary equity benchmark.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different underlying events. Kalshi uses USD Index level on July 7 as a proxy; Polymarket uses actual FTSE 100 price movement on July 9. These can diverge significantly, making one or both markets potentially unresolvable as stated for the intended event.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's resolution depends on currency markets two days before the event; Polymarket's depends on direct FTSE price action on the event date itself. Currency strength does not guarantee equity index direction. Confirm which market aligns with your trading thesis before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Proxy-based resolution using U.S. Dollar Index level (101.0780 threshold) measured at 11:59 PM ET on July 7, 2026. Resolves Yes if threshold exceeded; No otherwise. No direct observation of FTSE 100 price required. Key Quote: 'If the U.S. Dollar Index is above 101.0780 at 11:59 PM ET on Jul 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Direct price comparison: FTSE 100 closing price on July 9, 2026 versus most recent prior trading day. Resolves Up if higher, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trade. Includes fallback rules for market disruptions and uses WSJ Historical Prices as authoritative source. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is lower than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If UKX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by FTSE 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

If the U.S. Dollar Index is above 101.0780 at 11:59 PM ET on Jul 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, traders aggregate real-time expectations about whether the FTSE 100 daily movement market will close higher or lower on July 9, 2026. This cross-platform event is also tracked on Kalshi, allowing you to compare consensus pricing across venues. The dashboard surfaces aggregate volume and implied probability across both platforms, giving you a unified view of where the market leans. These prediction markets reflect collective trader conviction about UK equity index direction, updated continuously as new information emerges.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money incentives and live market sentiment rather than point estimates. Traders here are betting capital on a binary outcome, which tends to surface consensus faster than consensus surveys. Analyst forecasts typically focus on longer-term valuations, whereas this market isolates a single day's directional move. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional opinion aligns with crowd expectations or if traders are pricing in near-term catalysts analysts may have overlooked.

Both platforms host the same underlying event, but pricing can diverge due to differences in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket attract traders with distinct risk appetites and information sets, so one venue may react faster to breaking news. Arbitrage opportunities between the two are typically small and fleeting. Monitoring both prices gives you a richer signal: if one platform is significantly ahead, it may indicate where informed traders are concentrating conviction.

Major UK economic data releases, Bank of England policy signals, and broader European or US market moves typically drive FTSE 100 direction. Earnings surprises, sector rotation, and currency fluctuations in sterling can also shift trader positioning. Geopolitical developments and global risk sentiment often ripple into London equities within hours. As July 9 approaches, intraday momentum and technical levels may attract short-term traders, while longer-dated macro concerns tend to anchor the broader conviction.