TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 10?

limitless

polymarket

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 10?

Volume:

$696

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 10?

- Polymarket

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 10? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on July 10?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$227

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

limitless

45,500.00

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

7.1¢

N/A

$324

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

limitless

47,500.00

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

6.5¢

N/A

$144

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 3

Description

This event group contains a critical mismatch: Polymarket offers a market on FTSE 100 (UKX) directional movement on July 10, 2026, while Limitless offers two separate markets on Taiwan Index (TAIEX) closing prices for the same date. The group name references FTSE 100, but the underlying assets and resolution logic are fundamentally different across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Asset mismatch: Event group title references FTSE 100, but Limitless platforms contain TAIEX markets instead. The three markets use incompatible indices, resolution methodologies, and data sources, making unified settlement impossible.Hero tip: This is a data integrity failure. The event group should either contain only FTSE 100 markets or be renamed to reflect TAIEX. Do not assume these markets are related or will resolve together. Confirm the correct underlying asset and platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

Polymarket: FTSE 100 directional market: Resolves to Up/Down based on whether July 10, 2026 close is higher or lower than the most recent prior trading day close. Source: WSJ EMEA Historical Prices. Handles ties (50-50), shortened sessions, and trading halts with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade.
Limitless (Market 1): TAIEX absolute level market: Resolves YES if TAIEX closes above 47,500 on July 10, 2026. Source: TradingView or Taiwan Stock Exchange. Falls back to prior session if TSE closed; defers to official TAIEX if TradingView data unavailable for 24+ hours.
Limitless (Market 2): TAIEX absolute level market: Resolves YES if TAIEX closes above 45,500 on July 10, 2026. Source: TradingView or Taiwan Stock Exchange. Same fallback logic as Market 1.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Friday, July 10, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Friday, July 10, 2026 is lower than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If UKX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by FTSE 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Limitless

This market will resolve to “YES” if the “Close” price of the TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TWSE%3AIX0001) 1-day candle for the TSEC Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), based on regular trading hours only, is strictly greater than the price level specified in the title on July 10, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “NO”. For the purposes of resolution, all values will be rounded to two decimal places using standard rounding rules. If the Taiwan Stock Exchange is closed on July 10, 2026, the resolution moves to the “Close” of the prior regular trading session. If the TradingView data for the relevant 1-day candle is inaccessible or not published for more than 24 hours following the market close, resolution defers to the official TAIEX closing value for that trading day as published by the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation (https://www.twse.com.tw/en/page/trading/indices/MI_5MINS_HIST.html).

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one price outcomes through continuous trading rather than periodic analyst surveys, making them responsive to breaking news and intraday momentum. Traders with real capital at stake often incorporate forward-looking signals—earnings surprises, macroeconomic data, or sector rotation—faster than consensus estimates update. While analyst price targets reflect longer-term views, this market captures short-term directional conviction. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters and market participants agree on near-term index movement, or whether traders are pricing in information analysts have not yet digested.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct liquidity pools, user bases, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same underlying event. Polymarket attracts high-volume crypto-native traders, while Limitless may draw a different participant mix with varying risk appetites. Order-book depth, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly new information is priced in. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but gaps can persist if transaction costs or regulatory friction make cross-platform trading impractical, especially during volatile market conditions.

UK economic data releases—inflation figures, employment reports, or retail sales—often drive FTSE 100 volatility on the day of publication. Central bank communications from the Bank of England, geopolitical developments, or shifts in global risk sentiment can trigger sharp intraday swings. Earnings announcements from major constituents like HSBC, Shell, or Unilever may also influence index direction. Currency movements (GBP strength or weakness) and commodity prices affect the index's composition, while broader equity market sentiment from US or European opens sets the tone for London trading.