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471,138

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35,775

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2,926

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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
polymarket
kalshi

Will Friedrich Merz remain Chancellor by January 8, 2029?

Total volume:
$2,898,872
Volume 24h:
$14,674
54%
Liquidity:
$247,034
21%
Open interest:
$13,690
0%

Before Jan 1, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2029

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% | APY: 6% 816 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029

Trade
93%
Yes 87¢No 15¢
2¢
N/A
$587
0%
0%
$587
2y 2mo 3w
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2028

Trade
81%
Yes 75¢No 33¢
8¢
N/A
$505
0%
0%
$305
2y 2mo 3w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028

Trade
66%
Yes 66¢No 41¢
7¢
N/A
$998
0%
82%
$483
2y 2mo 3w
active
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 50¢No 52¢
2¢
$26,119
$3,552
2%
287%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
52.7%
Yes 58¢No 46.5¢
Avg: 4.5¢Max: 7¢
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2027

Trade
70%
Yes 46¢No 62¢
8¢
N/A
$765
0%
61%
$545
2y 2mo 3w
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
35%
2%
Yes 36¢No 66¢
2¢
$28,030
$2,948
9%
4,813%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
42.2%
Yes 41¢No 64¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 8¢
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
35%
Yes 30¢No 74¢
4¢
N/A
$1,713
0%
38%
$1,087
2y 2mo 3w
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 21¢No 80¢
1¢
$17,419
$2,276
1%
101%
N/A
5mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
26.7%
Yes 25.5¢No 77¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 4¢
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
15%
Yes 13¢No 92¢
5¢
N/A
$6,102
0%
12%
$2,926
2y 2mo 3w
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$84,737
$2,314,098
0.45%
3%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.5%
Yes 9.5¢No 93.5¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

November 30, 2026

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 96.4¢
0.8¢
$46,601
$13,003
0%
2,239%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

October 31, 2026?

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 98.9¢
0.3¢
$44,127
$146,343
0.17%
3%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$5,248
0%
0%
$1,657
2y 2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$392,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,300
N/A
N/A
$6,100
2y 2mo 3w
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Friedrich Merz leaving his position as Chancellor of Germany before January 1, 2029. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring, as aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi, is 93.0%. Resolution will be based on an announcement or actual departure from office, with the government of Germany serving as the primary source. Keep an eye on the German political landscape as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 8, 2029, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on whether an *announcement* of departure is sufficient for resolution, and have differing end dates.Hero tip: Focus on markets with end dates that align with your prediction horizon. Polymarket markets are more sensitive to announcements, while Kalshi markets require either an announcement or actual departure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Merz ceases to be Chancellor by the date, with an announcement immediately resolving the market to 'Yes'. Resolution source is the German government or a consensus of credible reporting. "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date...an announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes""
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Merz either announces their intention to leave *or* actually leaves office by the date. "If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before [date], then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces or actually leaves the position of Chancellor of Germany before any of the specified dates ranging from October 1, 2026, to January 1, 2029. An official announcement requires a statement from Merz, his authorized representative, or the governing body, reported by at least one source agency, and must not indicate a departure more than one year from the statement date. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment, recall, or term expiration without renewal, but excludes temporary absences like medical leave or delegation of duties while retaining the position. Death does not trigger a payout, and forced departures satisfy the criteria even without a prior announcement.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of Friedrich Merz leaving the position of Chancellor of Germany before Jan 8, 2029. Currently, the aggregated view across both platforms shows a combined volume of $2,898,872 with $11,010 traded in the last 24 hours. This reflects a consensus view derived from traders on both venues, though individual probabilities differ. The short_topic provides a focused view on this specific political event, allowing for a clear understanding of market sentiment. We aggregate data to provide a comprehensive view of this market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling reflects stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as betting involves real financial stakes, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While polling can gauge public opinion, this market attempts to forecast the actual outcome, incorporating a wider range of information and individual biases. It's important to consider both sources when assessing the likelihood of an event.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing market structures and fee schedules can contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? at 49.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029? at 93.0%. These variations are normal and reflect the independent nature of each market, even when tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Friedrich Merz has officially left the position of Chancellor of Germany before the specified date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information from reliable news sources and official government announcements. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the event's conclusion, providing clarity for all participants in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any major political developments within Germany, such as a vote of no confidence, a shift in coalition dynamics, or a significant scandal involving Friedrich Merz, could cause substantial price movement. Economic indicators, particularly those impacting Germany's stability, could also play a role. Unexpected policy announcements or changes in public opinion, as reflected in polling data, might also influence traders' assessments and shift the probabilities within this market. Unexpected health issues could also be a catalyst.