TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
$2,000+
- Limitless
$2,000+ - Limitless
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Closed: Sep 9, 4:43 PM EST
Limitless
Apple is scheduled to hold its "Surprise and Shine" event at 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first price publicly announced by Apple for a foldable iPhone for the US market is greater than or equal to the specified amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The price used for resolution will be the starting price (USD) as first announced by Apple for the lowest-priced configuration of a foldable iPhone in the US market, before taxes, carrier subsidies, trade-in credits, promotional discounts, or bundled services. Prices announced for other regions or for higher storage configurations will not be used. Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify as a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone. If Apple announces prices for more than one foldable iPhone model, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not publicly announce a price for a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Apple is scheduled to hold its "Surprise and Shine" event at 10 a.m. PT on September 9, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first price publicly announced by Apple for a foldable iPhone for the US market is greater than or equal to the specified amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The price used for resolution will be the starting price (USD) as first announced by Apple for the lowest-priced configuration of a foldable iPhone in the US market, before taxes, carrier subsidies, trade-in credits, promotional discounts, or bundled services. Prices announced for other regions or for higher storage configurations will not be used. Any foldable smartphone announced by Apple will qualify as a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly branded as an iPhone. If Apple announces prices for more than one foldable iPhone model, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not publicly announce a price for a foldable iPhone by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Limitless, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for the foldable iPhone. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price range being correct. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own research, news updates, and overall market sentiment, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. The more a particular price range is traded, the more likely the market believes that price point is to be the actual launch price.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome determined by the officially announced price of the first foldable iPhone released by Apple. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting from Apple’s official announcements and reputable technology news sources. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their predictions aligned with the actual price. This provides a clear and transparent resolution process, ensuring fairness and accuracy in determining the market’s results.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Leaks regarding Apple's supply chain costs, particularly for the foldable display technology, would be a major catalyst. Any official statements from Apple executives hinting at pricing strategy would also move the market. Unexpected economic conditions or shifts in the smartphone market could also influence expectations. Furthermore, the release of competing foldable phones and their pricing could affect how traders value the foldable iPhone, potentially shifting probabilities across different price ranges in this market.