TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
86–89
- Polymarket
86–89 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Closed: Jul 24, 1:15 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader behavior rather than relying on static models or expert opinion. While epidemiologists and public health analysts publish seasonal flu projections based on historical patterns and current surveillance data, this market reflects dynamic pricing as new information arrives. Traders incorporate emerging variants, vaccination rates, and real-world hospitalizations into their positions continuously. When analyst forecasts shift or new CDC data is released, market odds typically adjust faster than formal expert updates. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in risks that traditional forecasters may have underweighted or overlooked.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time odds for each outcome bracket. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different hospitalization rate ranges, and the cumulative order flow determines the probability displayed for each outcome. Higher trading volume in a particular outcome pushes its price upward, reflecting stronger market conviction. The pricing mechanism ensures continuous liquidity and allows participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined rates. As new health data or seasonal developments emerge, the price adjusts to reflect updated trader expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, once Week 28, 2026 concludes and hospitalization data becomes available. The outcome is determined by verified flu hospitalization figures from credible public health sources covering that specific week. Traders' positions settle based on which outcome bracket the actual hospitalization rate falls into. Resolution typically occurs within days of the week's end, once official data is published and confirmed. Until then, this market remains active and prices continue to shift as traders adjust their views on the likely outcome.
Several factors could shift this market significantly before resolution. New flu variants or unexpected surges in respiratory illness would likely increase hospitalization expectations and move odds upward. Vaccination campaign announcements or changes in public health guidance could reduce expected hospitalizations. Real-time CDC surveillance reports and weekly hospitalization data releases in the months leading up to Week 28 will provide concrete signals that traders incorporate immediately. Seasonal trends, healthcare capacity constraints, and any major public health policy shifts also influence market pricing. Economic or behavioral changes affecting healthcare-seeking behavior could alter outcomes, making this market sensitive to both epidemiological and social developments.
