TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
85–90
- Polymarket
85–90 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 6, 2026
Closed: Jul 3, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect decentralized trader consensus and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because markets incorporate real-time information and financial incentives. While public health agencies and epidemiologists publish seasonal flu projections based on historical patterns and current surveillance data, this market prices in broader uncertainty and trader conviction. Comparing the implied probability on Polymarket to CDC forecasts or academic models can reveal whether the crowd expects flu activity to exceed or fall short of expert baseline estimates for that specific week.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once Week 25 hospitalization data becomes available and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whether the actual U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 during that week falls within the specified range or outside it. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome receive their winnings, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution depends on official reporting from health authorities tracking seasonal influenza hospitalizations.
Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. New flu variant emergence or unexpected viral mutations could alter hospitalization projections. Vaccine uptake rates and effectiveness data released during the prediction window may influence trader expectations. Weather patterns, school reopenings, and public health guidance changes all affect transmission dynamics. Additionally, real-time CDC surveillance reports showing early-season flu activity trends will provide concrete signals that traders use to adjust positions. Major policy announcements or international flu developments could also trigger repricing as participants reassess Week 25 severity.
