TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
85–90
- Polymarket
85–90 - Polymarket
1W
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 26, 2026
Closed: Jun 26, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one aggregate dispersed trader knowledge into real-time probability estimates, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts. While public health agencies and epidemiologists publish seasonal flu models and hospitalization projections, traders on this market incorporate those forecasts alongside their own assessments of policy changes, vaccine uptake, and emerging variants. The market price reflects a crowd-sourced view that can move faster than formal analyst updates when new signals arrive. Comparing the current odds here to published CDC or WHO guidance offers insight into whether the market is pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic outcomes than official models suggest.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, and the price of each share reflects the collective assessment of that outcome's likelihood. The top outcome currently reflects strong trader conviction, with odds showing high confidence in a specific hospitalization rate range. As new information emerges—flu surveillance data, hospitalizations trends, or seasonal patterns—traders adjust positions, moving the price up or down to rebalance supply and demand.
This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once Week 24 data becomes available and verifiable. The outcome is determined by the actual U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population reported for that specific week, confirmed against credible public health sources. Traders who correctly predicted whether the rate would fall within the specified range receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on official reporting from health authorities, ensuring the market settles fairly based on real-world events rather than speculation.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before Jun 26, 2026. Emerging flu variants or unexpected surges in hospitalizations would likely push the market toward higher rate predictions. Conversely, successful vaccine campaigns or milder seasonal patterns could drive odds lower. Policy announcements—such as new public health measures or changes to testing protocols—may also influence trader positioning. Real-time CDC flu surveillance reports, state-level hospitalization data, and international flu activity all serve as leading indicators. Additionally, broader economic or social disruptions affecting healthcare access could reshape expectations about how many people seek hospitalization during Week 24.
