TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
85–90
- Polymarket
85–90 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved May 29, 2026
Closed: May 28, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 population will fall within the 85–90 range during Week 20 of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a rate between 85 and 90—stands at 99.5%, while the probability of a rate below 80 is 0.4%. Resolution will be determined by the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate reported for that week. Watch for the CDC FluView weekly report release in late May 2026, as the official hospitalization data must be published by May 29 to avoid resolution to the lowest bracket.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs and are often more dynamic than traditional analyst forecasts. While public health agencies and epidemiological models publish seasonal flu projections months in advance, prediction markets update continuously as new surveillance data, vaccination rates, and variant information become available. Markets tend to incorporate emerging signals faster than static analyst reports. Comparing Polymarket odds to CDC forecasts or academic models can reveal whether traders expect Week 20 hospitalization rates to exceed or fall short of official predictions, offering a complementary perspective on likely flu burden heading into summer 2026.
The Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 20, 2026 market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by official U.S. hospitalization rate data for Week 20, which is typically published by the CDC in their FluVax surveillance reports. The specific hospitalization rate per 100,000 population reported for that week will determine which outcome bucket is correct and which traders receive payouts. Week 20 corresponds to mid-to-late May 2026, marking the tail end of the Northern Hemisphere flu season when hospitalization rates are generally declining but still measurable.
Several factors could shift odds for Week 20 flu hospitalizations. Emerging variants with higher severity or transmissibility could increase expected hospitalization rates, moving odds upward. Conversely, strong vaccination uptake or improved antiviral availability might lower expected rates. Real-time CDC hospitalization data from earlier weeks in 2026 will provide crucial signals—if early-season rates trend higher or lower than historical norms, traders will adjust Week 20 expectations accordingly. Public health policy changes, such as new mask or isolation guidance, could also influence transmission and hospitalization projections. Seasonal weather patterns and population behavior shifts in spring may further impact flu dynamics heading into Week 20.
