TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 1.45M
- Kalshi
Above 1.45M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 9:12 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks voter participation in an upcoming political contest, focusing on whether the final count of votes cast meets specific thresholds. The outcome depends on official certification of results, ensuring accuracy and legitimacy. It reflects public engagement levels in the electoral process.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the officially certified total vote count from the relevant election authority for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. Only votes reflected in the official certification—including provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots—are counted. The resolution relies solely on certified results, disregarding preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified data. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the original date, the markets remain valid. If postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No. Each market has a distinct threshold, and resolution to 'Yes' occurs only if the certified vote count exceeds the respective threshold specified for that market.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, traders in the Florida GOP turnout market currently assign a probability that reflects their collective view of expected voter participation. These odds often diverge from traditional polling averages, which can be influenced by sampling methods, timing, and voter enthusiasm factors not fully captured in surveys. While polls provide a snapshot of stated intent, this market incorporates real-time betting activity that may react more quickly to emerging trends, campaign dynamics, and economic indicators. The difference between the two can highlight areas where market participants see higher or lower likelihoods of turnout than pollsters currently project.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants buy and sell contracts representing different turnout levels. The current implied probability reflects the collective judgment of all traders on likely outcomes. Liquidity and volume of $362,816 help determine how efficiently prices adjust to new information, with tighter spreads indicating stronger consensus among market participants.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official voter turnout figures released after the primary election, providing a clear, data-driven basis for settlement. Traders should monitor authoritative election news sources for timely updates as results are tallied.
