TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

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Politics
Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
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Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory

Volume:
$87,179

Donalds 20–25%

 - Polymarket

Donalds 20–25% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 27, 12:06 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Donalds 20–25%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Donalds 40%+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 35–40%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 25–30%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,792
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 30–35%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds <5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 15–20%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,879
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 10–15%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Donalds 5–10%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Collins wins

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fishback wins

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Polymarket

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Florida GOP governor margin market. It shows how traders are pricing the potential margin of victory for the Republican nominee in the state’s gubernatorial race. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity, with current volume at $99 over the past day and total volume at $87,179.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated based on official election results, and the market will settle accordingly. Timing depends on when authoritative sources publish finalized vote counts, typically shortly after the election night tally is complete.

Debates, polling updates, fundraising announcements, and endorsements could all shift this market as they change perceptions about the likely margin of victory. Major news events—such as scandals, policy missteps, or unexpected endorsements—may also cause rapid price swings. Additionally, changes in voter registration numbers or demographic shifts within Florida could influence trader sentiment and move odds before the market settles.