TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 15%
- Kalshi
At least 15% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 9:11 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks Jay Collins' performance in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, focusing on whether he achieves specific vote percentage thresholds. The outcome depends on the officially certified results, reflecting his electoral support among Republican voters in Florida.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote Jay Collins receives in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. For each market, a specific minimum vote share threshold (ranging from 5% to 35%) must be met or exceeded for the outcome to be 'Yes.' The vote percentage is calculated by dividing the total valid votes Collins receives by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded as specified. Only certified or official results are considered; preliminary figures, invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots, and write-in votes (if not included in certified results) are excluded. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by the expiration date, all markets resolve to 'No.' Recounts that adjust the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure. Multiple voting rounds, such as ranked-choice voting, base the percentage on the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be calculated from official election results, and this market will settle based on whichever range most accurately reflects Jay Collins' share of the Republican primary vote.
Several key signals could shift this market before it resolves on Aug 18, 2027. Upcoming debates, major endorsements, or polling releases may dramatically alter trader expectations for Jay Collins' vote share. Financial developments affecting campaign resources, controversies involving candidates, or changes in voter registration statistics can also influence market dynamics. Media coverage tone and volume often precede market movements, as traders react to narrative shifts. Additionally, any unforeseen events — such as scandals, policy announcements, or economic indicators — might reshape the competitive landscape, prompting rapid reassessments of probabilities on Kalshi as the primary date approaches.
