TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Jay Collins
- Kalshi
Jay Collins - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 9:13 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Jay Collins will finish in second place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. On Kalshi, the current probability that Jay Collins finishes second stands at 98.0%, while Paul Renner finishes second at 2.0%. The outcome will be resolved based on the certified election results. The certified results are expected by August 18, 2027, and will determine the market's final settlement.
Kalshi
Ranking is determined by vote count or percentage for plurality voting systems, elimination order for ranked choice voting, final round results for two-round systems, and electoral authority seat allocation for proportional representation. Exact ties resolve proportionally. Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific write-in option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked by votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and fundraising data that polls may lag in capturing. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect dynamic expectations about actual primary outcomes. The market's implied probability for the 2nd place finisher tends to weight factors like candidate viability, endorsement patterns, and electability assessments more heavily than raw polling numbers, making it a complementary signal to survey data.
The Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place market resolves on Aug 18, 2027, following the official results of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by which candidate finishes in the second position once all votes are counted and certified by Florida election authorities. The market will settle based on the final, official primary results announced by the state, with no ambiguity about ranking or vote totals.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the 2nd place finish: major candidate endorsements or campaign suspensions, significant fundraising announcements or cash-on-hand reports, debate performances and media coverage, polling releases showing momentum changes, and grassroots organizing developments in key Florida regions. Candidate gaffes, scandals, or strategic pivots can rapidly reprrice expectations. Primary turnout models and early voting patterns in the weeks before August 2026 will also influence trader positioning. Any shift in frontrunner viability could cascade into changes in who traders expect to finish second.
