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Elections
FL-25 Democratic primary: Oliver Larkin vote percent
kalshi

What will Oliver Larkin's vote percent be in the FL-25 Democratic primary?

Volume:
$113,820

At least 35%

 - Kalshi

At least 35% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 9:04 PM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 35%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,590
N/A
N/A
$6,723
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 30%

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,360
N/A
N/A
$6,072
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 15%

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,208
N/A
N/A
$7,211
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 25%

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,841
N/A
N/A
$9,646
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 20%

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,074
N/A
N/A
$5,923
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 10%

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,157
N/A
N/A
$1,081
10mo 3w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 45%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,685
N/A
N/A
$13,552
10mo 3w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 40%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,828
N/A
N/A
$12,287
10mo 3w 1d
No
kalshi

At least 50%

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,077
N/A
N/A
$8,158
10mo 3w 1d
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks how much support a specific candidate receives in a party primary election. It measures whether the candidate achieves various vote share thresholds based on final, official results. The outcome depends solely on the certified percentage of votes the candidate earns.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Oliver Larkin in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary. Each market corresponds to a specific vote share threshold (10%, 15%, 20%, etc.), and resolves to Yes if Larkin's certified vote percentage falls within or exceeds that threshold, up to 100%. The vote percentage is calculated by dividing the total valid votes received by Larkin by the total number of valid votes cast in the election, multiplied by 100 and rounded as specified. Only certified or official results count; preliminary results, write-in votes (if certified), and invalid/spoiled/rejected ballots are treated according to standard electoral rules. If multiple voting rounds occur (such as in ranked-choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if unspecified. Markets resolve to No if the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or if no certified results are available by the expiration date. Recounts that adjust the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure. All markets share these core resolution mechanics, differing only in their respective vote share thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding, with the current chance reflecting aggregated expectations for Oliver Larkin’s vote share. The market price adjusts based on order flow and open interest, capturing real-time sentiment. Volume of $710 indicates liquidity and trader engagement, while price movements respond to news, debate performance, and polling updates.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote percentage will be compared against the market’s settled value, determining payouts for traders based on how closely the actual result matches their positions. Timing aligns with official certification of the primary election results.