TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Jared Moskowitz, ≥25%
- Kalshi
Jared Moskowitz, ≥25% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 9:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The 2026 Florida Democratic primary in district 25 will determine Jared Moskowitz's victory margin, which is the difference between his vote share and his closest competitor's. This margin can range from narrow to decisive, reflecting the competitive nature of the race.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary. The margin is calculated as the difference between Moskowitz’s vote share and the next highest candidate’s vote share. If Moskowitz wins, the margin is positive; if he loses, it is negative; a tie results in a zero margin. Each market segment corresponds to a specific percentage range of this margin, from 5% to over 50%, with ranges inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound. Votes for the same candidate across multiple listings are summed, and no rounding is applied to the margin percentage.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a stronger inclination toward a narrower race than many public polls suggest. While polls may show wider leads, this market prices in a tighter contest, potentially factoring in campaign dynamics, fundraising, and local issues that aren’t fully captured in traditional surveys. Traders often react to new data sooner than pollsters can survey voters, which can create divergence between the two.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin will be calculated from certified vote tallies, and the market will settle based on whether it meets the defined threshold for a decisive victory. Timing depends on when official results are announced and certified post-election.
Debates, endorsements, and any shifts in voter registration could significantly move this market. Local scandals, campaign mishaps, or major policy announcements may also sway trader sentiment. Additionally, emerging poll data closer to the election date often triggers rapid price adjustments, especially if they show unexpected movement toward either candidate. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a decisive margin will impact pricing.
