TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 15%
- Kalshi
At least 15% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Michael Carbonara in the FL-22 Republican primary by measuring the percentage of votes he receives against various thresholds. The outcome depends on whether his vote share meets or exceeds specific percentage benchmarks as officially certified.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified percentage of votes received by Michael Carbonara in the FL-22 Republican primary, compared against multiple thresholds ranging from 15% to 45%. For any threshold, if Carbonara’s vote share falls within or above that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Vote percentages are calculated from total valid votes cast, excluding invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots. Write-in votes are included if present in certified results. Resolution relies solely on official, certified results—preliminary counts or estimates are irrelevant. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or certified results remain unavailable by the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. In cases where a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified figure determines the outcome. For elections involving multiple voting rounds (e.g., ranked-choice voting), the percentage is derived from the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the current implied chance reflects trader expectations for Michael Carbonara’s vote share, which can diverge noticeably from public polling averages. While polls offer a broad snapshot of voter intent, this market incorporates real-time betting activity, news developments, and campaign dynamics that polls may miss. As the primary approaches, comparisons between this market’s odds and updated polling data can reveal shifts in momentum or highlight areas where betting markets and voter surveys disagree.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official vote count is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage of votes Michael Carbonara receives will settle all contracts, regardless of how close the race ends up or which candidate ultimately wins the primary.
Key developments like debate performances, endorsements, advertising spend, or emerging scandals could shift this market. Polling updates closer to the election date, especially those focused on FL-22, often drive rapid price changes. Any surge in betting volume or large trades may also amplify swings, reflecting new information or sentiment among participants on Kalshi.
